Nigeria has recorded at least 35,432 deaths linked to armed conflict and political violence during President Bola Tinubu’s first three years in office, according to newly compiled data, a figure that significantly exceeds the combined toll under four previous administrations over a similar period.
The figures, drawn from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), track verified incidents including battles, attacks on civilians, and other forms of political violence. Analysts say the scale of fatalities underscores the depth of Nigeria’s security challenges, even as government officials insist progress is being made.
By comparison, the total number of conflict-related deaths during the first three years of former presidents Olusegun Obasanjo (7,522), Umaru Musa Yar’Adua (4,889), Goodluck Jonathan (7,400), and Muhammadu Buhari (17,319) stands at 37,130. Tinubu’s current tally alone approaches that combined figure and exceeds Buhari’s early years by more than double.
The data also points to an intensification of violence in recent months, with more than 11,900 deaths recorded in 2025 alone. Much of the bloodshed has been attributed to ongoing banditry in the northwest, communal clashes in the Middle Belt, and insurgent activities in parts of the northeast.
Despite the grim statistics, Nigeria’s military leadership maintains that security operations are yielding results. Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa, recently said the armed forces had achieved between 65 and 70 percent progress in stabilizing affected regions. He also noted a reduction in civilian casualties from airstrikes, a longstanding concern among rights groups.
“We are seeing improvements in coordination and intelligence-led operations,” Musa said at a recent briefing, adding that ongoing offensives have disrupted several armed groups and reduced their operational capacity.
However, critics argue that such claims are difficult to reconcile with continuing reports of deadly attacks and abductions. The recent killing of Michael Oyedokun, a schoolteacher abducted during a raid in Oyo State and later beheaded, has drawn renewed attention to the human cost of insecurity.
Security analysts say the persistence of violence reflects structural challenges, including weak local policing, porous borders, and economic pressures that fuel recruitment into armed groups. “The data highlights not just a spike in violence, but the resilience of these networks,” said one Lagos-based analyst. “It suggests that tactical gains have not yet translated into sustained security on the ground.”
The Tinubu administration has repeatedly pledged to overhaul Nigeria’s security architecture, with increased funding for the military and efforts to strengthen intelligence sharing among agencies. Yet, for many communities, daily life remains overshadowed by the threat of attack.
As Nigeria enters the second half of Tinubu’s term, the contrast between official assurances and on-the-ground realities is likely to remain a central issue in public debate. Whether current strategies can significantly reverse the trend of rising fatalities may prove a defining test for the administration’s security agenda.